Prediction Markets in the US: Legal Apps, Promo Codes & How Event Trading Works

A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real event, from a playoff game to a Fed rate decision. Every contract is a yes-or-no question, every price is between 1¢ and 99¢, and a winning contract pays $1. In the US, the big apps run under federal futures regulation rather than state gambling law.

That's why prediction markets are open in states where sports betting isn't legal, including California, Texas, Florida and Georgia. It's also why they're in court with a growing number of states.

This hub explains how event trading works, which apps you can use where you live, the current offers for Locals Insider readers and our review of each platform. If you want a ranking, our US prediction market apps comparison does that job.

List of Legal Prediction Market Apps in the US

These are the main prediction market apps open to US traders, starting with the ones we've reviewed, from the most-rated down.

1. Kalshi – 18+, nationwide
2. Polymarket US – 18+, nationwide
3. DraftKings Predictions – 18+, 48 states, sports contracts in 17
4. FanDuel Predicts – 18+, all 50 states and D.C., sports only where sports betting isn't legal
5. Robinhood – 18+, sports contracts limited in five states
6. Coinbase – prediction markets operated by Kalshi
7. Crypto.com and its OG app – contracts on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America
8. Fanatics Markets – also on Crypto.com's exchange
9. Underdog and PrizePicks – prediction markets inside the fantasy sports apps

Every one of them answers to the CFTC, but sports contracts depend on your state. Check where you are before you sign up.

Top Prediction Market Apps: What Each One Does Well

Each app we've reviewed, with where it works, what sets it apart and who it suits. Ratings are US App Store averages, checked November 2026.

1. Kalshi – the original event exchange

   18+ · Nationwide under CFTC oversight; sports markets vary by state

   Kalshi became the first exchange designated by the CFTC for event contracts in November 2020. It lists sports, economics, weather, politics and culture markets, and with more than 680,000 ratings at 4.82 it's by far the most-rated prediction app.

   Its contracts also power the prediction markets inside Robinhood and Coinbase.

   Who it suits: traders who want the widest choice of non-sports markets, from Fed decisions to the weather.

2. Polymarket US – politics and world events

   18+ · Nationwide under CFTC oversight; sports markets vary by state

   Polymarket.com blocks US traders, so Americans use the separate Polymarket US app, run by QCX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange. It lists sports, politics, economics and culture markets, and the app averages 4.56 from about 66,000 ratings.

   Promo Code LOCALS adds a $25 trading bonus after a first deposit of at least $10.

   Who it suits: traders who want politics, culture and world-event markets alongside sports.

3. DraftKings Predictions – the top-rated app

   18+ · 48 states, not ME or NH · Sports contracts in AL, AK, CA, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, MN, NE, NM, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, TX

   DraftKings Predictions is its own app in most states, and also sits inside the main DraftKings app in California, Texas and Florida. Its app averages 4.87 from about 19,800 ratings, the highest score here.

   Spend $5 and new customers get $200 in Predictions Dollars.

   Who it suits: sports fans in the 17 sports-contract states, including California, Texas and Florida.

4. FanDuel Predicts – built with CME Group

   18+ · All 50 states and D.C. · Sports contracts only where online sports betting isn't legal, and not on tribal lands

   FanDuel built Predicts with CME Group, and it's open in every state, with markets and news contracts where sports aren't offered. The app averages 4.78 from about 6,900 ratings, and new customers can get up to $100 in Predicts Bonus.

   Who it suits: FanDuel customers who live in a state without legal online sports betting.

5. Robinhood – prediction markets next to your stocks

   18+ · Sports contracts not in MD, MI or NV · No new sports contracts in OH; no new sports, culture, elections or politics contracts in UT

   Robinhood's event contracts sit inside its investing app, routed to four exchanges: KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, and Crypto.com Derivatives North America. You need an approved Robinhood Derivatives account, and trades happen in the app only.

   Most new customers get a $5 stock as the welcome offer.

   Who it suits: people who already invest with Robinhood and want to try event contracts without a new account.

Prediction Market Promo Codes and Welcome Bonuses

Offers for Locals Insider readers. Each one is for new customers only, and availability depends on your state.

18+. New customers only. Must be physically located in an eligible state. Event contracts carry a risk of loss. Bonus credits can't be withdrawn; winnings from them can, subject to each app's terms. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET.

How a Prediction Market Works

1. Pick a yes-or-no question

Every contract settles on a clear outcome: will the Chiefs win on Sunday, will the Fed cut rates in December, will it snow in Philadelphia this month?

2. The price is the probability

Contracts trade between $0.01 and $0.99. A Yes contract at 62¢ means the market puts the chance of that outcome at about 62%. If you're right, the contract pays $1; if you're wrong, it pays nothing.

3. Trade before it settles

You can sell a position at any time before the event ends, to lock in a profit or cut a loss. You're trading against other users on an exchange, not against a bookmaker who sets the line.

Prediction markets vs sportsbooks

A sportsbook sets odds and takes the other side of your bet, and it's licensed state by state. A prediction market matches buyers and sellers, and the exchange is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The prices can look alike, but the legal wrapper and the way you trade are different, and you can exit a position mid-game at the market price.

Prediction Market Apps Compared

Ratings are the apps' US App Store scores, with the number of ratings in brackets. Robinhood's prediction markets live inside its main investing app, so its rating covers the whole app.

Is It Legal Where You Are?

The big US prediction markets are regulated at the federal level by the CFTC. Their operators argue that federal law gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, so state gambling bans don't apply. That's how sports contracts reach states with no legal sports betting.

States don't all accept that argument. Kalshi itself says twenty states are in active litigation with it or other prediction markets, and Nevada's Gaming Control Board has warned its licensees against involvement in sports event contracts. North Carolina has gone the other way, with a budget provision allowing CFTC-registered prediction markets to operate in the state and pay a 6% tax.

What each app offers where you live

• DraftKings Predictions: available in 48 states, not Maine or New Hampshire. Sports contracts run in 17 states without legal DraftKings Sportsbook, including California, Florida, Georgia and Texas.
• FanDuel Predicts: available in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Sports contracts are offered only where online sports betting isn't legal, and not on tribal lands; elsewhere you can trade finance, economics and other markets.
• Robinhood: residents of Maryland, Michigan and Nevada can't trade sports contracts. Since November 2, 2026, Ohio residents can't open new sports contracts, and Utah residents can't open new sports, culture, elections or politics contracts.
• Kalshi and Polymarket US: both operate nationally under CFTC oversight. Market availability, especially for sports, can vary by state, so check the app where you are.

You must be physically located in an eligible state when you trade, and every app here requires identity verification before you can trade.

Prediction Market Reviews A–Z

• DraftKings Predictions – $200 in Predictions Dollars, sports contracts in 17 states and DraftKings-style pricing.
• FanDuel Predicts – Up to $100 in Predicts Bonus, CME Group contracts and nationwide finance markets.
• Kalshi – The first CFTC-designated exchange for event contracts, and the most-rated standalone prediction market app on the App Store.
• Polymarket – Promo Code LOCALS for the US app of one of the most recognized names in prediction markets.
• Robinhood Predictions – Event contracts inside the Robinhood app, routed to four regulated exchanges.

How to Trade Prediction Markets Smartly

1. Read the price as a probability. A 20¢ contract isn't cheap or expensive by itself. Ask whether the chance is really higher or lower than 20%.
2. Check your state's market list. Sports contracts depend on where you are. Finance and economics markets are more widely available.
3. Use the exit. Selling before settlement is one of the main advantages over a sportsbook. Decide your exit point before you enter.
4. Mind the bonus rules. Bonus credits usually can't be withdrawn and may expire fast; FanDuel's daily Predicts Bonus expires 24 hours after it lands.
5. Watch the fees. Exchanges charge trading fees on many markets. Factor them into small-edge trades.
6. Keep records. Event contract profits may be taxable. Keep your statements and the tax forms your app issues.
7. Set a budget. Event contracts can lose 100% of what you put in. Trade only money you can afford to lose.

Prediction Market FAQs

Are prediction markets legal in the US?

The major apps are regulated by the CFTC and operate nationally. Some states dispute their right to offer sports contracts, and several cases are in court.

How old do you have to be?

18 or older on Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Robinhood.

Can I trade sports in a state without legal sports betting?

Often, yes. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts offer sports contracts specifically in states without legal online sports betting, including California, Texas, Florida and Georgia.

How is a prediction market different from a sportsbook?

You trade contracts with other users on a federally regulated exchange instead of betting against a state-licensed bookmaker. You can sell before the event ends.

What does a contract pay?

$1 if your prediction is right and $0 if it's wrong. You buy at a price between 1¢ and 99¢.

Do I need a promo code?

Not always. Some offers apply automatically through our link, but entering the Promo Code where asked makes sure the offer is attached to your account.

Is Polymarket available in the US?

Yes, through the separate Polymarket US app, operated by QCX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket.com itself blocks trading from the US.